The SMO enters its 3rd year: Views from Russia

What are Russians saying about the special military operation in Ukraine?

© RIA Novosti / Evgeny Biyatov

February 24, 2024 marked two years of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. How do Russians assess the last 24 months? Your correspondent sampled a range of views from Russian media and commentators.

My hope is that this blog post will demonstrate that discussions about the SMO in Russia are far more nuanced and diverse than we are told in English-language mainstream and alternative media.

— Riley

Russia has been born again

In an op-ed published by RIA Novosti, political commentator Kirill Strelnikov wrote that Russia had undergone a rebirth over the last two years:

[I]n two years the words “homeland”, “fatherland”, “duty”, “honor”, ​​“heroism”, “self-sacrifice” and “feat” have been resurrected from the musty pages of dictionaries, and we have learned anew to understand their true meaning.

It’s as if we’ve all become wiser and older … [W]e will bring victory closer, no matter how long it takes. The press secretary of the head of our state, Dmitry Peskov, said that the Special Military Operation began against Ukraine, and later “took the form of a war against the collective West,” so it may last longer than planned. We are not running a race against the clock. Our stakes are higher. Our stake is our country and our future.

Our attitude towards everything connected with the Great Patriotic War has changed completely imperceptibly … We want to say to [our grandfathers and great-grandfathers]: “We did not betray you and did not let you down.”

Two years have passed since the beginning of the SMO. And in just these two years, in these two whole years, our country was born again, and with it, us.

Doing the impossible without understanding what to do next

Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel Grey Zone (528,000 subscribers) honored Russia’s Airborne Forces for doing the “impossible” in the first hours of the SMO, adding that these initial military successes were followed by political intrigue:

Two years ago, in these hours and minutes, on February 24, 2022, history began. One of the bright, legendary and heroic pages in this story was the landing on the Antonov airfield in the village Gostomel in the Kiev region. […]

After landing, the paratroopers began clearing the airfield, gradually taking control of administrative and other buildings at Gostomel. […]

The landing party completed its task. Everything that happened next was the result of political games, and without understanding what to do next.

The guys from the Airborne Forces in those days forever wrote themselves into the military history of Russia. They did the impossible, something that no one expected.

When will it end?

Blogger Anatoly Nesmiyan (“El-Murid”), a vocal supporter of the Donbass republics who in recent years has become highly disillusioned with the Kremlin, observed that even in official information channels discreet language is being used to ask when the SMO will end. In a Telegram post (111,500 subscribers), Nesmiyan wrote:

Aesopian language is the alpha and omega of today’s Russian analytics and journalism. Therefore, instead of a clear and precise term, you have to twist the laces, so much so that at the end of the phrase the meaning of its beginning is lost. It is not surprising that it is almost impossible to properly assess what is happening—there is no adequate conceptual apparatus, and what exists is either impossible to use or is prohibited under penalty of many years of imprisonment.

But this is no longer surprising; this is now the norm. Abnormal in every sense—but normal.

Another thing is curious: most of those who write and speak on the occasion of the two-year anniversary [of the SMO] are suddenly preoccupied with the fact that they are trying somehow to pose the question: when? When can all this end? The question is posed very carefully and wrapped in loyal paragraphs about achieving all goals, “we haven’t really started yet”, and other similar things. For the same reason—so as not to be suspected in any way.

But the question “when” is already being asked. Which is not surprising: the blitzkrieg failed, the conflict entered a protracted phase, which transformed into hopeless dead-end “attrition.” At the same time, even the biggest scumbags are forced to admit that, of course, talking about the capture of Kiev is now a task that in no way follows from the real state of affairs and the balance of forces. More sane assessments are not given at all due to the obvious futility.

The question “when” in a hopeless situation arises absolutely inevitably. If it is not hopeless, if it has real prerequisites for a radical change, such a question not only is not raised, it does not arise.

UAF on the eve of defeat in Donbass

Russia’s Free Press, a pro-SMO outlet that leans socialist/communist, collected commentaries from Western analysts who believe the UAF will soon be pushed out of Donbass and that Kiev should agree to a negotiated settlement:

Western experts are now drawing gloomy scenarios for the Ukrainian Armed Forces as the Russian army continues its offensive in Donbass. […]

Research fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Michael Kofman, at the panel discussion “Defense Priorities,” believes that the Ukrainians will now frantically try to build new defense lines west of Avdiivka. […]

The tactics of the new command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to Kofman, will be to try to hold the territory and deplete Russian forces as much as possible. In particular, the Ukrainians will rely on underground bunkers and tunnels to offset Russia's advantage in artillery and glide bombs.

The problem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is also the lack of long-term operational planning. According to Kofman, this was evident already during the so-called “counteroffensive” in the summer, when Ukraine was unable to effectively scale the use of its forces, operating at the level of two or three reinforced companies, even to the brigade level. […]

American military expert Daniel Davis says that the latest losses should force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to agree to peace negotiations.

“Ukraine needs to try to come to an agreement with Russia on ending hostilities as soon as possible. This war cannot be won by Ukraine militarily, period,” Davis is confident. “It doesn’t matter whether they get their $60 billion from the United States.”

We know we will win but it’s too early to open the champagne

RT editor-in chief Margarita Simonyan (478,000 subscribers on Telegram) marked the two-anniversary of the SMO by republishing the message she wrote in the early hours of February 24, 2022:

We woke up friends who shared our views. They didn't believe it at first either.

And then they said: “Well, let's open the champagne!”

Then we did not yet know that we would have to fight with the entire Western world, without any allies, for the first time in our history.

But we already knew that we would win.

We know this even now.

It's still too early to open the champagne. For now—prayers for the soldiers, help to the front, families, refugees, patient conversations with doubters—on air and off air.

But the champagne is already in the refrigerator, and we are trying very hard to do everything in our power to ensure that it stays there for as little time as possible.

There is nothing to celebrate

Colonel Viktor Alksnis (known as the “black colonel”), a former State Duma deputy and co-chair of the National Patriotic Forces of Russia, wrote on Telegram (35,900 subscribers) that none of the stated goals of the SMO had been achieved and that the conflict was turning into a stalemate:

Today is the second anniversary of the SMO.

Judging by the lack of official victory reports on this matter, even the Kremlin understands that there is nothing to celebrate and the special military operation is in a positional deadlock, with no end in sight.

My assessment of the “strange war” that has been going on for two years is as follows:

1. None of the goals of the SMO voiced by the President of the Russian Federation in his address to the nation on February 24, 2022, have been achieved in two years of fierce hostilities. Moreover, the combat zone has expanded significantly compared to February 2022, and Ukraine, in addition to Donbass, is now striking at the “old” regions of the Russian Federation.

Let me remind you [what Putin said two years ago]: “...I have made a decision to conduct a special military operation. Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to abuse and genocide by the Kiev regime for eight years. And for this we will strive for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. And also to bring to justice those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation.”

2. The Russian army, despite increased funding over the past twenty years and an active advertising campaign about supposedly turning it into the second-most powerful army in the world, and rearming it with 80% of the most modern and best weapons in the world, is actually fighting mainly with outdated Soviet weapons from the eighties. And despite this, lies about the most combat-ready army in the world continue to be heard from the lips of our high-ranking leaders even after two years of the SMO.

3. Despite the current support of the majority of Russians for the goals of the Northern Military District, fatigue is beginning to grow in society from the lack of a fundamental change in the course of hostilities and the age-old Russian questions are beginning to be heard: “Who is to blame?” and “What to do?” And when such questions take hold of the Russian masses, the situation ends in great upheavals, as events more than a century ago clearly showed.

It won't be easy or simple but there is no other way

Donrf, one of the original Donbass military bloggers (42,000 Telegram subscribers), said there should be no more “illusions” as the SMO enters its third year:

[I]n 2014, we expected Russia to come. Then there was a war. Long and negotiable.

Eight years later, Russia came. And everyone also expected it to be quick and easy. And there was betrayal. Betrayal of those who promised us—there will be no resistance. […]

There was Kharkov, where our negotiators were destroyed, there was Kiev, where the Russian landing showed that the heroism of our ancestors did not last, there were stabs in the back from fooled fools...

And then, after Istanbul, the war began. Already in earnest … A different war. With advances and failures. With losses and victims. With the victories of the Russian spirit in Artemovsk. To Zaporozhye. In Avdiivka. It continues. And it will continue.

But there should be no more illusions. None. Everything will be hard and not fast … It won't be easy or simple. It won’t be fast. The third year of the war has begun for the Russian Federation and the eleventh for Donbass. […]

[M]ay God let everyone understand that there is no other way but this.

A battle has been won but the war continues

A op-ed published by Military Review, Russia’s most popular military news portal, hailed the recent victory in Avdiivka, while cautioning that the war was far from over:

The capture of Avdiivka is not a defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, not a “radical change” or anything like that. This is a won battle, but not a won war. I’m almost sure that someone will definitely write something like “everything is going according to plan.” Alas, war is not waged “expecting miracles.” Any “miracle” is carefully prepared at headquarters. Indeed, victories come to those who have “everything according to plan”...

Let's return to Donetsk … the artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces almost constantly terrorized the city. And now, after some time, after clearing out all those small villages and industrial zones that surround Donetsk, this will stop. Alas, not now and not even tomorrow. Our fighters need time to clear the territory... And the saboteurs and “sleepers” have not disappeared anywhere...

[I]n the information space I constantly come across thoughts about how easy it will now be to crush the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “There are almost no trained units left,” “The West has abandoned Ukraine and will no longer help,” “weapons and ammunition are sorely lacking,” and so on, in the same spirit.

And seemingly thinking people talk about this, without even wondering why their thoughts began to sound the same as the statements of Kiev politicians and our most ardent enemies in the West. They are trying to convince us that soon Russia will win, using the favorite phrase of Ukrainian propagandists. […]

[However,] we’ve learned to fight in new conditions. We have learned to win. We want to win. And this is the main thing today.

Many thanks to all the soldiers and commanders for this victory.

Winter will end, Russian Spring will come

Igor Strelkov’s wife posted a message on her husband’s Telegram channel (516,000 subscribers) in which she shared her mixed emotions about the two-year anniversary of the SMO. (Strelkov recently received four years in prison after a secret trial found him guilty of “extremism”):

Today is a significant date—2 years have passed since the beginning of the SMO. I cannot consider this date a holiday, as probably many of you do. Until we have won, the hopes of the residents of Novorossiya for a peaceful sky above their heads have not yet been fulfilled. In addition, the last two years have been full of irreparable losses—our loved ones and friends.

My husband is in prison—a patriot and officer, ready to lay down his life for our victory and for the Motherland.

But I also cannot consider the day the special operation began as a day of sadness. Yes, tragically late, but finally we have begun to restore justice to the residents of Donbass, who have suffered from uncertainty for so long.

On this day it is especially clear how right Igor was in many ways. Many of his predictions came true and continue to come true. And this is not some kind of prophetic gift of his, but his intelligence and experience. Igor always substantiated his opinion when he showed us problems in the army and at the front as a natural result of many years of incorrect actions of the system. This has brought us to the point where we are forced to live and fight now, trying to save a future for our children.

Neither the military-industrial complex, nor the skills of modern warfare, nor the professionalism of commanders will suddenly appear out of nowhere. Everything that Igor Strelkov wrote about since February 2022 became obvious to everyone by February 2024.

But, as Igor likes to repeat: do what you must—and come what may. I know we will win. And this will be the merit of our people, our soldiers at the front and all caring people helping in the rear.

February does not last forever, but winter will definitely end. Russian Spring will come.

The elites haven’t changed

Nakanune, a popular “leftist” (socialist/patriotic) media outlet, marked the two-year anniversary of the SMO by highlighting the lack of substantive change on the domestic/economic front in Russia.

“The elites have not changed during this time—a very small part of the elites left, and the rest covered their ears. A small part, of course, switched to patriotic positions, because after all, the malice and inability of the West to negotiate became obvious, but the majority remained and are waiting,” political scientist and former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov told the outlet.

According to Markov, “The attitude of the citizens remains the same— ‘I don’t really want an SMO or mobilization’, but society understands a certain inevitability of this and therefore completely trusts the president.”

Nakanune also published comments from State Duma deputy Mikhail Delyagin (A Just Russia—For Truth), who said that import substitution was still not working properly and it was unclear how Russia’s economy, which is increasingly dependent on defense orders, would develop after the end of the SMO:

The economy categorically does not meet the needs of the time, because it has not been put on a military footing. The slogan “everything for the front, everything for victory” is not reflected in economic policy. Our social and economic policy as a whole is drawn up according to Gaidar’s models and remains absolutely liberal.

No one even dares to limit the withdrawal of capital from the country, let alone stop the arbitrariness of the monopolies, and the burning of the country by an artificially created monetary famine. The population of Russia was kept in artificially created misery and poverty, and remains this way. Everyone is talking about the thousands of sanctions that were introduced. The West is against Russia, but these sanctions are still nothing compared to the sanctions that the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance have imposed against Russia.

Unfulfilled objectives

Popular English-language Russia commentator vicktop55 (69,000 Twitter followers, 21,000 Telegram subscribers) translated an analysis from Russian military expert Alexander Zimovsky:

[In two years,] Ukraine has become even more Nazi and even more militarized than before the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine.

On land, Ukraine continues to occupy:

- 25% of the territory of the Kherson region of the Russian Federation;

- 34% of the territory of the Zaporozhye region of the Russian Federation;

- 39% of the territory of the DPR of the Russian Federation.

At sea, Ukraine has completely neutralized the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, which today has lost the ability to conduct amphibious operations and is no longer able to paralyze maritime communications, supplies and maritime trade of Ukraine.

In the air, Ukraine demonstrated the presence of unmanned/missile weapons with a range of up to 900 kilometers.

In terms of ground combat operations, Ukraine has lost the ability to conduct any offensive actions at the operational level on the Eastern Front; at the tactical level, the ability to advance/attack remains at the battalion-brigade level;

In terms of sabotage and reconnaissance operations, Ukraine retains the initiative and retains some advantage in the number of such operations.

Regarding the use of small unmanned strike and reconnaissance aircraft on the Eastern Front, Ukraine manages to maintain parity with Russia in the tactical depth of the defense of the Russian Federation.

In terms of conducting ideological and psychological special operations, Ukraine is successfully imposing its own narrative of war in the West. And it retains full control over its own population in terms of war propaganda and motivating the population to continue the war in the long term.

The West is gearing up for war with Russia

Katyusha.org, a patriotic Orthodox Christian/conservative outlet, warned that the West was preparing to escalate the conflict. Citing the Economist’s February 22 cover story, the outlet wrote:

The task that Europe now faces, according to the magazine’s analysts, is very difficult. It is necessary to rebuild security mechanisms based on a “big” NATO, due to the fact that support for the alliance will not take priority in an [assumed] incoming Trump administration. The authors of the article identify four components of solving this problem:

• Increasing defense spending to levels not seen in decades.

• Restoring forgotten military traditions of Europe.

• Restructuring its military industry.

• Direct preparation for a possible war.

[…]

The task of our primordial enemies is becoming increasingly clear—to rally Europe to fight Russia without exception, as was done in the last century by the hands of fascist Germany. Only then they made a mistake with their goal-setting and a war broke out on two fronts. The same thing could happen in the new “mobilized” Europe in about five years. Everything repeats itself in history.

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NOTE FROM EDWARD: Sorry that there was no news roundup yesterday. We will return to our normal Blog Schedule this Sunday.

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